Harvest 2026 at the quarter-pole: even better quality (and even lower yields) than we were anticipating

It's an adage in wineries that when you think yields are going to be plentiful, they're even more plentiful than you'd anticipated. And when things look scarce, buckle up, because they're likely to be even more scarce than you thought. That second scenario is playing out so far in 2026. Thankfully, the quality looks amazing. And it's important to note that it's still early; we're mostly making our judgments based on what we're seeing in Grenache. There are lots of grapes to come. Here's the chalkboard as of Tuesday:

Let me bring you up to speed. After the couple of early picks that I detailed in my harvest kickoff blog, we enjoyed a week-long cooldown with a deep marine layer and unusual August cloud cover. This made for some great photo opportunities (like the shot below) but didn't produce a lot of rapid ripening.

That cool stretch ended on August 17th, and we've seen highs consistently in the upper 90s and low 100s ever since. The vineyard has responded. After more than a week of nothing coming in, we started picking again on August 18th and have ramped up steadily since then. Last week we brought in 30 tons, mostly top-of-hill picks of whites including Vermentino, Viognier, and Roussanne, and this week has been a deep dive into Grenache. Yesterday we harvested Grenache from three different blocks off the estate as well as Grenache to be direct-pressed into Patelin Rosé and yet more Grenache to go into Patelin red. We're at around 60 tons this week, mostly of Grenache. You can see the crushpad, full of Grenache, yesterday morning:

As we cross the 100 ton line, or roughly one-quarter of what we expect the full harvest to bring, we can start to make some judgments about quantity. It's becoming clear that for Grenache, at least, we're very light. Our oldest Grenache block, planted in 1992, last year produced 11.16 tons. This year, the same block produced 4.02 tons, a 64% decline. Our dry-farmed blocks on Jewel Ridge and Scruffy Hill weren't down quite as much, but were off by nearly half from last year. Much of this we were expecting, and some was even intentional. Last year, in some of our newer head-trained blocks, we saw so much vigor that all the growth inhibited the free flow of air and light. Knowing that this year's late rain was going to raise our mildew pressures, we went in and thinned both the canes and the crop to keep things healthy. But that same late rain also caused more shatter and millerandage than we've seen in recent years, leading to lighter-weight clusters with fewer berries. There's still a lot of Grenache to come. But if last year brought a record harvest of 114 tons of Grenache, this year I'm thinking we're looking at more like 65. On the positive side, the Grenache that we have received looks spectacular. You can see in this photo of the work on the sorting table just how dark the berries are:

And Chelsea had to move up her pulling of the juice for Dianthus rosé because it was so deep so soon. This is after just 24 hours:

It appears that Grenache Blanc is scarce as well. Our oldest Grenache Blanc block came in 49% lighter than last year. That's not surprising, as it exhibits all the same growth patterns as Grenache Noir.

Will other grapes be down as much? It doesn't look like it. Syrah and Marsanne both look similar to or maybe even a little above last year. And they both look beautiful. You can see the berries starting to deflate slightly, which is always a good hint that they're getting close to picking:

It doesn't look like things are going to slow down any time soon, as we're expecting most of the rest of the Grenache and most of the Syrah and Marsanne to come in over the next two weeks. Add to that the rest of the Viognier, Vermentino, and Grenache Blanc, and we're likely looking at something like 250 tons in by the middle of September. To give you a little context, we were at 120 tons on September 15th last year, just 20% of the way to our 615 ton total for 2025. Now this year we're only expecting between 400 and 450 tons, and it seems certain we'll be past our midpoint on that same date.

If you're familiar with how we harvest at Tablas Creek, you might have noticed something unusual. Typically, Syrah is the first Rhone red that we bring in, with Grenache following after. Not this year. We know that crop levels play an important role in ripening speed. So that flip-flop is further evidence that while Grenache crop levels are very light, Syrah crop levels are more like normal. We know Grenache is much more prone to shatter than Syrah, which likely plays a role. But that provides further evidence toward that the vintage isn't going to all be a month early. We're scheduled to harvest the first Syrah off our estate tomorrow. That August 28th date is just a week ahead of last year's September 4th start to our Syrah harvest.

You might notice some of the grapes I haven't mentioned, like Mourvedre and Counoise. That's because they're not even through veraison yet and not likely to start arriving in the cellar for close to another month. There will be plenty of time to focus on those grapes, as well as our Roussanne, in the second half of harvest. This Counoise cluster is a good example:

So, to recap what we know. Grenache is going to be light, and likely early. What we've harvested so far looks outstanding in terms of quality. And we're likely in for some long days the next two weeks, after which we might get a little break.

Hey, no one said this would be easy. But it looks like it will be worthwhile.